EXPERIMENT THEORY

The Unprotected Majority

How Identity Inference Silences Mainstream Opinions

An interactive companion to the identity-inference theory of how mainstream opinions get silenced.

The Unprotected Majority

Three settings, each drawn in the clean pedagogical style of Bordalo et al. (2016). Two are abstract illustrations (triangles & circles; boys & girls) and one is political. In every setting an individual's group and trait are carried by two separate visual features. Each setting card below holds its three treatment figures — Symmetric, Majority, Minority — and a switch (top right) that flips all three together between Two groups (identity-inference view) and One group (pooled population, marginal prevalence only). Equal group sizes throughout (μA = μB = ½).

Treatments

The three calibrations used in every setting — share holding trait 1 in each group.

Treatment Group A (π1A) Group B (π1B) R(1,A)
Symmetric0.650.651.00
Majority0.650.950.68
Minority0.450.650.69

Triangles & Circles

An abstract illustration. Groups are a triangle and a circle (the shape), and the binary trait is encoded by colour — green vs blue.

Symmetric
Majority
Minority

Boys & Girls

A second abstract illustration, distinct from the shapes above. Groups are boys and girls figures, and the binary trait is encoded by a t-shirt colour, in the style of Bordalo et al. (2016).

Symmetric
Majority
Minority

Icon convention after Bordalo, Coffman, Gennaioli & Shleifer, “Stereotypes,” Quarterly Journal of Economics (2016). Icons drawn originally for this page.

Democrats & Republicans

Groups are Democrats and Republicans in party colours blue and red, and the binary trait is whether the figure wears a globe hat (supports the climate policy) or not.

Symmetric
Majority
Minority